Papua New Guinea 2027: The Bougainville Issue
Bougainville is going full steam ahead for independence - but will Papua New Guinea allow it? And is it a surprise that a lucrative mine sits at the center of some very complex dynamics?
Bougainville, an autonomous region in Papua New Guinea, saw a bloody conflict, possibly the most violent one in Oceania (other than West Papua) in the post-WWII era. This was mainly in the 1980s and 1990s; in 10 years around 20,000 people were killed (as per some estimates), and scores more displaced; and then a peace agreement was made between the Papua New Guinea government and Bougainville insurgents/separatists.
As part of that deal, there was a referendum in 2019, in which Bougainvilleans overwhelmingly chose independence from Papua New Guinea. In 2021, the date for independence was set for between 2025 and 2027.As per recent news - its 2027.
However, Papua New Guinea parliament has still not ratified the referendum results, and it seems increasingly unlikely that it will do so. And authorities and leaders in Bougainville, are set on independence - they have been reaching out to intergovernmental groups, prepping for the transition to independence, and so forth. So where will this likely go?
Violence, unfortunately.
The Bougainville Conflict
Between the mid-to-late 1980s to the late 1990s, violence engulfed the island of Bougainville, and even some surrounding areas, spilling over into the Solomon Islands. At the heart of it was a mine1, once the largest open-pit copper mine in the world. It was run by Rio Tinto, and employed a lot of people - just not Bougainvillieans. People from other parts of Papua New Guinea, and foreigners. Aside from this, the mine, operated by Rio Tinto, had a massive negative impact on the surrounding environment, on which lots of people’s livelihoods still depend. And, Bougainville was not reaping the benefits of the lucrative mining project, which if I remember correctly, was at one point contributing to about half of Papua New Guinea’s mineral export wealth.
Now doesn’t that sound familiar? I could replace the details in the paragraph above and it could be applied to nearly all of our beautiful third world.
So there was all this - power, politics, money, people and corporations and governments playing dirty and funding and facilitating violence, and conflict broke out; and then it warped and twisted across society; fueling tribal conflict, gang violence, secessionism (in a place that historically had not necessarily wanted to be a part of Papua New Guinea, but hey colonial boundaries). The Papua New Guinea Defense Forces were accused of human rights violations, as were insurgent groups. The government was going to contract mercenaries It’s still unclear how many people were killed - whether directly or as a result of the conflict. According to most estimates, around 10% of Bougainville’s indigenous population was killed, and there are accusations of genocide - Bougainville was blockaded for many years.
Looking Ahead: 2027 is not far away
Here’s the situation right now. The Papua New Guinea government:
allegedly massively corrupt
allegedly plagued by bad governance
allegedly has weak institutions
allegedly does not maintain law and order across the country
allegedly has bad financial practices
allegedly is very unstable
allegedly is a crony-capitalist oligarchy with the elite trying to take more and more of the pie
allegedly so forth and so on
Bougainville is worth a lot - there’s plans underway to reopen the controversial copper mine. There’s billions of dollars of gold and copper there still. And Bougainville does not necessarily have the resources to be completely sovereign at the moment. And Papua New Guinea has a gun problem. During WWII, locals fought outsiders with bows and arrows, and spears, and traditional weapons, and in the following decades with WWII weapons (over in West Papua, there was a guy last year with a Sten gun). Now, there’s a massive problem of high-powered modern firearms in its highlands - and a general weapons problem across most of the country. And tribal culture is stronger than anything a sitting government in Port Moresby can impose. So things do not look good in one of the most resource rich and biodiverse regions in the world.
Thank you for reading - please subscribe if you liked this, comment (with feedback, criticism, insights, beef recipes, anything really), and share (if its not too much of a problem). Let me know any topics of interest or if you want more information. Have a nice day.
This is a story in itself - which I am working on - there were even nearly mercenaries contracted by the government during the conflict.